U.S. Freight Cost Trends Mid‑2025: Truckload, Expedited, and Air
1. Truckload (Full Truckload & Expedited Ground)
Over the past year, U.S. truckload freight costs—both spot and contract rates—show persistent inflation, though with moderation in early 2025.
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Spot rates climbed roughly 11.6% YOY in Q4 2024, according to RXO’s Curve Index, and remain inflated in Q1 2025, though growth has slowed FreightWavesRXOTrucking Dive.
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Contract rates moved from a contraction of –1.5% in Q4 2024 to a modest +1.4% YOY increase in Q1 2025 RXO.
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Arrive Logistics expects spot rates to stay relatively stable through mid‑2025, with moderate YOY growth. Contract rates have reached a floor and are unlikely to fall further Arrive LogisticsThinkFreight.
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Flock Freight’s Q2 outlook sees Q1 ending with only +3% YOY spot rate growth, down from +5.5% in Q4. They project +8–10% YOY growth in Q2, and potentially +20% by year’s end, tempered by uncertain freight demand and tariffs Flock Freight.
Summary: Compared to a year ago, ground freight costs remain elevated but are growing more gradually. The rest of 2025 should see mild to moderate rate increases, especially in spot markets.
2. Expedited Freight (Hot‑Shot, Same‑Day, Ground)
While less frequently broken out separately in data, expedited or hot‑shot freight, which relies on urgency and oversized premiums, tends to mirror spot rate trends—though with added surcharges for speed and shorter notice.
Given overall carrier oversupply and plentiful capacity, expedited costs have softened somewhat. Still, they remain pricier than standard truckload due to immediacy. As spot rates stabilize, expedited premiums may also moderate but remain premium relative to regular linehaul.
3. Domestic Air Freight
Air cargo costs over the past year have exhibited mixed signals—growth in some areas, softening in others.
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IATA reports a modest 3.2% YOY growth in air cargo demand in January 2025—its 18th consecutive month of expansion, but slower than prior years IATA.
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Bertling sees 2024 air freight growth at 11.3%, with a projected +5.8% growth in 2025. However, uncertainties from tariffs, e-commerce rule changes, and trade policy introduce volatility bertling.com.
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Since May 2025, U.S. air cargo shipments from Asia dropped 20–30% compared to a year ago, largely due to elimination of the de minimis exemption and rising tariffs Wall Street JournalReutersFinancial Times+1Financial Times+1.
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Mordor Intelligence forecasts the U.S. air freight market at about $49.85 billion in 2025, with a projected CAGR of 4.33% through 2030 Mordor Intelligence.
Summary: Overall air freight costs peaked during 2024 but are now stabilizing or easing slightly in certain lanes. Policy shifts and reduced demand from Asia are likely to temper rates in late 2025, although domestic and value‑sensitive segments (e.g. pharmaceuticals, e‑commerce) will buoy continued growth.
Forecast for Remainder of 2025
| Freight Mode | Trend Compared to 2024 | Forecast Remainder of 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Truckload Spot | Elevated but moderating | +8–10% YOY in Q2, possibly +20% by year-end Flock Freight |
| Contract Truckload | Slight YOY gains | Flat to modest gains; stabilized levels Arrive Logistics |
| Expedited Ground | Premium on spot rates | Remain elevated but align with spot trend |
| Domestic Air Freight | Peak in 2024, cooling in 2025 | Mild growth overall; specific corridors may soften bertling.comWall Street JournalReuters |
Final Thoughts
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Truckload freight remains costlier than a year ago but will likely slow in growth through mid‑2025. Spot rates may surge in Q2–Q3, while contract rates stay steady.
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Expedited services will continue to command premium pricing, though conditional on spot rate trends and capacity.
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Air freight demand is softening in affected lanes (e.g., Asia to U.S.), but domestic demand remains steady. Expect manageable growth, with selective volatility tied to trade policy.